URBANIZATION The World’s Growing Middle Class (2020–2030)

URBANIZATION

The World’s Growing Middle Class (2020–2030)

Published 17 hours ago 

on February 3, 2022

By Bruno Venditti

Article/Editing:

• Omri Wallach

Graphics/Design:

• Pernia Jamshed

The World’s Growing Middle Class (2020–2030)

The middle class is already the largest spending group in the world, driving increased consumption of goods and materials.

50 years ago, this group of global consumers lived almost exclusively in Western countries. Today, they are increasingly spread around the world, representing 45% of the global population.

In this graphic based on data from Brookings Institution, we highlight the global middle class’ impact on the global economy and how this population is expected to grow in the next decade.

Who is Considered Middle Class?

Though there are many different definitions of middle class, many define the group as those earning between $10 and $100 per person per day.

For the Brookings’ projection, the global middle class is divided by the lower middle class (earning $11–$50 per day in 2011 PPP) and the upper middle class (earning $51–$110 per day in 2011 PPP).

In general, middle class families also tend to own their own home through a mortgage, own a car, and have enough savings to afford to dine out and take vacations.

Consumer Group# of People (2020)# of People (2030P)Total7.7 billion8.4 billion

Upper Middle Class	0.6 billion	1.0 billion
Lower Middle Class	2.9 billion	3.8 billion
Rest of World	4.2 billion	3.6 billion

Since 2003, when the number of poor and vulnerable people in the world reached a historic peak of 4.4 billion people, the middle class has been growing fast, especially in Asia.

By 2030, another 700 million people are expected to join the global middle class, making it more than half of the world’s total population.

Middle Class Spending

Over the last few decades, the middle class has grown into one of the primary forces sustaining the global economy.

In 2020, the global middle class spent $44 trillion, or 68% of the world’s consumer spending. By 2030, middle class households are expected to spend even more, an estimated $62 trillion or 50% more than in 2020.

Per capita, the upper middle class and wealthy elite will lead in consumption, but the largest overall spenders will be the 3.8 billion people in the lower middle class:

Consumer GroupTotal Spending (2020)Total Spending (2030P)Total$64T$91T

Upper Middle Class	$18T	$27T
Lower Middle Class	$26T	$35T
Upper Class + Poor/Vulnerable	$20T	$29T

Though many will move up into the lower middle class, the amount of people in the poor and vulnerable segment will remain large. However, it will only account for $5 trillion, or about 6%, of total spending globally.

A Richer World

History has shown that as science and technology advance, the world becomes richer.

Although inequality between countries persists and takes a long time to overcome, middle-income countries increasingly catch up to high-income countries and create this swelling population of middle class households.

With more than half of the world’s population projected to be in the middle class by 2030, what will material consumption in the next decade look like?

Visualizing the World’s Growing Middle Class (2020–2030) (visualcapitalist.com)

The World’s Growing Middle Class (2020–2030)